UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.