Pitches, Bowling Tools and Reserves – The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost

Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|